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About:
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**Jaouad Karfali** is an independent researcher who analyzes economic cycles using a **9-year numerical model**. His research (1871–2025) shows an **85% accuracy rate** in predicting recessions, including the **Great Depression (1929)** and a **2025 downturn**. His hybrid **VAR-Karfali model** integrates traditional economic indicators, improving forecasting accuracy. Though not yet cited in academia, his methodology has potential for future recognition.
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