American Economic Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
A Model of Populism as a Conspiracy Theory
American Economic Review
(pp. 3214–47)
Abstract
We model populism as the dissemination of a false "alternative reality," according to which the intellectual elite conspires against the populist for purely ideological reasons. If enough voters are receptive to it, this alternative reality—by discrediting the elite's truthful message—reduces political accountability. Elite criticism, because it is more consistent with the alternative reality, strengthens receptive voters' support for the populist. Alternative realities are endogenously conspiratorial to resist evidence better. Populists, to leverage or strengthen beliefs in the alternative reality, enact harmful policies that may disproportionately harm the non-elite. These results explain previously unexplained facts about populism.Citation
Szeidl, Adam, and Ferenc Szucs. 2025. "A Model of Populism as a Conspiracy Theory." American Economic Review 115 (9): 3214–47. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240010Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D82 Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness