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This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of free secondary schooling in the developing world. Our analysis is based on an OLG model of human capital accumulation that we estimate to match experimental evidence on the effects of secondary school scholarships. The model predicts that nationwide free secondary schooling leads to a modest gain in GDP per capita. The human capital gains from expanded education access are offset by lost income during schooling years and dampened by negative selection of new students entering secondary school. An alternative policy that spends the same resources improving school quality has significantly larger effects.
